HOME BUYING
From Listings to Living
You are thinking about selling next spring, or opening a line of credit, or you are simply curious after a neighbor's sign came down. Three websites give you three numbers for the same house, and they are $27,000 apart. None of them has been inside.
So how do you value your house? Use the methods in layers. Free online estimates give you a starting range. Recent comparable sales in your own neighborhood narrow it. A comparative market analysis from an agent tells you what the house would likely list and sell for. A licensed appraisal is the number a lender, including a buyer's lender, will actually rely on. A price index such as the one published by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) tells you how your area's prices have moved, not what your particular house is worth.
Which layer you need depends on the decision. Below, each method with its published error rates where they exist, its cost and its blind spots.
Leevli Editorial Team
| Method | Who produces it | Cost to you | Good enough for | Main blind spot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Online estimate (AVM) | An algorithm, such as the Zestimate or Redfin Estimate | Free | Tracking, a first look | Condition, recent remodels, unreported changes |
| Your own comps | You, from recorded and listed sales | Free, plus your time | Sanity-checking an offer or an estimate | Concessions and condition you cannot see |
| Comparative market analysis (CMA) | A real estate agent | Often no charge when an agent hopes to list the home | Pricing a listing or an offer | Can lean optimistic when the agent wants the listing |
| Appraisal | A licensed or certified appraiser | A fee, paid by whoever orders it | Loans, and legal or tax matters on professional advice | A snapshot as of one date |
| Price index (FHFA HPI) | A federal agency | Free | Trend and rough appreciation | Says nothing about your specific house |
An automated valuation model (AVM) estimates value from public records, listing data and the home facts on file. It is what most free home value estimate tools produce, and the big portals publish their own accuracy figures, which is more than most methods offer.
Zillow's Zestimate page, last refreshed September 30, 2026, reports a nationwide median error of 1.77 percent for homes listed for sale and 7.20 percent for off-market homes. Redfin's Redfin Estimate page, updated October 19, 2026, reports 1.90 percent for homes for sale and 7.46 percent for off-market homes.
The off-market figure is the one that applies to most owners asking what their house is worth, because their home is not listed. A median error means half of estimates land closer than that and half miss by more. On a house that eventually sells for $450,000, 7.20 percent is $32,400. Zillow's national table also shows that 61.79 percent of off-market Zestimates fell within 10 percent of the sale price, so roughly 38 percent missed by more than 10 percent.
The gap between on-market and off-market accuracy has a simple cause. Once a home is listed, the model can use the list price and listing details, which Zillow says provide additional signals about the likely sale price. Before that, the model works from tax assessments, prior sales and other public records, which may not reflect recent changes to the home.
Zillow's off-market median error was 5.23 percent in the Denver metro and 4.83 percent in the Washington metro, but 8.03 percent in San Francisco and 7.71 percent in Miami-Fort Lauderdale, in the same September 30 refresh. An owner in Denver or Washington, D.C. can lean a little harder on the online number than one in Noe Valley or elsewhere in San Francisco. If you own a condo in Brickell, your building's own recent sales will usually tell you more than any metro average.
Each portal runs its own model on its own copy of the records. One may have your 2022 kitchen remodel because you updated the home facts; another may still show the bedroom count from the original listing. They may also refresh on different schedules and weigh recent nearby sales differently. With off-market median errors above 7 percent at both Zillow and Redfin, a gap of a few percent between portals should not surprise you; each figure is an estimate with an error band, not a price.
To make the estimate work harder for you, check the home facts on the portal. Zillow says unreported additions, updates and remodels are not reflected in the Zestimate, and it lets owners correct bedroom counts, square footage and similar details.
Your own comparable sales are the cheapest way to check an online number. Find three to six homes that sold in the last year in your neighborhood, close in size, age, bedroom count and condition, then adjust for the differences. Fannie Mae's Selling Guide on comparable sales shows how appraisers do it: closed sales preferred from the last 12 months, from the same market area when possible, with listings used only as support.
The step that trips people up is adjusting in the right direction: a comp with an extra bathroom sold for more because of it, so its price comes down to match your house, not up. Our guide to what comps mean and how the adjustment grid works walks through a full worked example.
A comparative market analysis is an agent's pricing opinion, built from closed sales and often from pending sales and active listings the agent considers competition. It is the right tool when you are deciding a list price, because it reads the current market, including what buyers are seeing right now. It is not a licensed valuation, and a lender will not use it.
An appraisal is a licensed appraiser's opinion of market value as of a specific date, usually based on a visit to the property and, for loans sold to Fannie Mae, at least three closed comparable sales. For a mortgage, the lender orders it. Fannie Mae's Appraiser Independence Requirements say lenders selling loans to Fannie Mae will not accept an appraisal from an appraiser selected, retained or paid by the borrower or by a broker or agent. A pre-listing appraisal you order yourself can still be useful for pricing or a family decision, but it will not replace the buyer's lender appraisal.
So the CMA vs appraisal choice is mostly about who needs to rely on the number. For pricing, the CMA. For anything a lender, a court or a tax authority will rely on, the appraisal, and the attorney or CPA handling the matter can tell you what kind they need. If you are getting ready for one, our home appraisal checklist covers what to prepare, and our guide to how long a home appraisal takes covers scheduling. Some conventional purchases and refinances close with no appraisal at all; our explainer on the appraisal waiver explains when that happens and why you might want one anyway.
For trend, a free government source is the FHFA House Price Index (HPI), a repeat-sales index that tracks changes in single-family home values using sales of the same homes over time. In its release of September 29, 2026, FHFA reported that U.S. house prices rose 0.3 percent in July 2026 and 2.6 percent from July 2025 to July 2026.
National numbers hide wide local differences. FHFA's second-quarter 2026 report showed prices up 2.1 percent nationally over the year, with Alaska up 8.30 percent and New Mexico down 1.25 percent. Among census divisions, East North Central rose 4.46 percent while the Pacific division was essentially flat.
FHFA also offers an HPI calculator: enter your state or metro area, the quarter you bought, the purchase price and a valuation quarter, and it estimates what the home would be worth if it had appreciated at the area's average rate. As an illustrative example, a $320,000 purchase in a metro whose index rose 35 percent since then would come out at $432,000. FHFA says plainly that the calculator does not project the actual value of any particular house, which depends on the local market and on condition, age and improvements.
The figure on your property tax bill is set by the county assessor for tax purposes, as of a statutory valuation date, and may be reduced by assessment ratios, exemptions or caps that vary by state. Because of those dates and rules, it can lag the market or sit well below it. Our guide to condo property taxes explains how assessed, market and taxable value differ and how appeals work. Treat the assessed value as a tax number, not a sale price.
Condo values depend on the unit and on the association behind it, and neither online estimates nor a national index see the second part well. Before you trust any number for a condo, look at:
Whether condo prices keep pace with houses over time is a separate question, covered in our analysis of whether buying a condo is a good investment and our condo vs house comparison.
Take the three website numbers from the opening and work them through. The figures are invented for illustration. Say the estimates are $612,000, $598,000 and $585,000 for a three-bedroom house that has not been listed. You pull four sales from the past year within a few blocks, and after rough adjustments for size and a dated kitchen they point to $590,000 to $605,000. Two agents prepare CMAs and suggest listing at $599,000 and $615,000; the higher one leans on an active listing that has sat for two months.
The overlap is roughly $590,000 to $605,000. That is a working value for deciding whether to sell. If you then list and accept an offer, the buyer's appraiser will work from comparable sales under stricter rules, and the closed sales will carry more weight than any listing.
An appraiser or agent is the right next step when real money depends on the number. For what the online estimate cannot see, such as noise, a leaky building or a board in turmoil, the people who live there are the better source. Ask them on Ask a Resident, or compare similar homes on Leevli listings.
No valuation model knows what living in the building or on the street is like, and buyers pay for that difference.
Listings show the property, but they rarely explain the lived reality around it. On Leevli, a mover can explore the city, review neighborhood and building information, and ask a verified resident the specific questions that remain unanswered. That human layer helps readers know what to investigate before signing a lease, making an offer, or choosing between two addresses.
Combine three free sources: two or more online estimates, a short list of recent comparable sales in your neighborhood adjusted for differences, and a comparative market analysis from a local agent. Where the three overlap is a reasonable working range. It will not satisfy a lender, but it is usually enough to decide whether selling, refinancing or borrowing against the house is worth pursuing.
Zillow reported a nationwide median error of 1.77 percent for listed homes and 7.20 percent for off-market homes as of its September 30, 2026 refresh. Accuracy varies by metro: off-market error was under 5 percent in the Washington area and about 8 percent in San Francisco. Zillow says the Zestimate is not an appraisal and cannot be used in place of one.
No single free estimate is reliable for an off-market home, because half of them miss by more than the median error. Use free tools as a range, not a price. Check that the portal has your correct square footage, bedrooms and recent improvements, compare at least two portals, and test the result against actual sales near you before acting on it.
A CMA is an agent's pricing opinion, often provided at no charge, and may weigh active and pending listings. An appraisal is a licensed appraiser's opinion of value as of a specific date, usually based on a property visit and, for loans sold to Fannie Mae, at least three closed sales. Lenders rely on appraisals they order themselves, not on CMAs.
You can use it to set a price, but the buyer's lender will order its own. Fannie Mae's Appraiser Independence Requirements say lenders selling loans to Fannie Mae will not accept a report from an appraiser selected, retained or paid by the borrower or by a broker or agent. A common mistake is assuming a pre-listing appraisal guarantees the buyer's appraisal will match it.
FHFA reported U.S. house prices up 2.6 percent from July 2025 to July 2026 in its September 29, 2026 release, with a 0.3 percent gain in July alone. In the second-quarter report, state results ranged from an 8.30 percent gain in Alaska to a 1.25 percent decline in New Mexico. FHFA updates the monthly index about once a month.
You pick a state or metro area, the quarter you bought, your purchase price and a valuation quarter. The calculator applies the area's average price change to estimate a current value. FHFA cautions that it does not project the value of any particular house, because condition, age, improvements and the local market all matter. It is useful for trend, not pricing.
Assessors value property as of a statutory date, and states may apply assessment ratios, exemptions or limits on annual increases, so the tax figure can trail the market. The rules differ by state, which is why a home in one state may be assessed near market value and a similar home elsewhere far below it. Check your county assessor's website for the method.
Start with recent sales of similar units in the same building, then comparable buildings nearby. Adjust for floor, view, parking and condition, and check the association's reserves, any special assessments and whether lenders will finance units there. Two units with identical floor plans can be worth very different amounts if one sold before a large assessment was announced.
Online estimates are instant and refresh often; Zillow says most Zestimates update multiple times per week. You can pull your own comps in an afternoon. A CMA depends on the agent's schedule and whether they walk through first. An appraisal usually takes a site visit plus report writing, and lender appraisals also depend on the appraiser's schedule and local demand.
This article is informational and does not constitute legal, financial, tax or insurance advice.
